The draw between Manchester City and Arsenal has left both teams’ destiny in the hands of Liverpool in the race for the Premier League title.

After 30 rounds of matches, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City have all played 29 games, accumulating 67, 65, and 64 points respectively. As the three teams will not face each other in the remaining nine matches, only Liverpool has the power to determine their own fate. This means that if Jurgen Klopp’s team can win all nine remaining matches, they will snatch the championship from Manchester City.

Excluding their recent encounters with Arsenal and Manchester City, Liverpool has won nine consecutive matches. Apart from Arsenal and Manchester City, Liverpool has only dropped points once at Anfield, in a goalless draw against Manchester United in Round 17.

Opta’s supercomputer has simulated the remaining nine matches for these three teams 10,000 times, revealing that Liverpool has a 47.7% chance of winning the title. This percentage has increased by 12.4% compared to before the Manchester City-Arsenal draw. Conversely, Manchester City’s chances of winning the title have decreased to 33.5%, a 12.4% drop after the match. Meanwhile, Arsenal only has an 18.8% chance of claiming the title.

However, Liverpool’s remaining fixture list is not straightforward, as they still have to face the other three teams in the top 6: Manchester United at Old Trafford, Tottenham at Anfield, and Aston Villa at Villa Park. One of Liverpool’s two losses this season came at the hands of Tottenham in a controversial match.

Arsenal also has to face three teams in the top 6, including a home game against Aston Villa, and away trips to Tottenham and Manchester United. Additionally, Mikel Arteta’s team has two challenging away matches against Brighton and Wolverhampton.

Manchester City is currently at a disadvantage in the title race, but they only have to face two teams in the top 6, with the next match being against Aston Villa on April 3rd. Even if they win their next match and both Liverpool and Arsenal suffer defeats, Pep Guardiola’s team is not guaranteed to reclaim the top spot due to their inferior goal difference.